Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe41302ed2fa0d3ff69f9dd3048c68357e81aaf9f9779a105035b37776434d52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 17c | 2,770$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.15 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Up | 25c | 2,373$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.33 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Up | 13c | 2,145$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Up | 5c | 1,841$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Down | 54c | 1,722$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 80c | 1,606$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.12 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Up | 26c | 1,056$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…f8a1backed Down | 75c | 925.41$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Down | 40c | 626.93$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…623cbacked Down | 77c | 610$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed Down | 72c | 546$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 60c | 534.45$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.67 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Down | 36c | 480.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.31 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed Up | 18c | 274.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 19c | 191.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 50c | 136.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 71c | 112.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 16c | 109.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Up | 10c | 99.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Down | 70c | 99.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Up | 73c | 96.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…acdfbacked Up | 15c | 70.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Down | 40c | 60.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Up | 28c | 51.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Down | 63c | 49.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…7984backed Up | 42c | 47.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Down | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…c3efbacked Down | 65c | 42.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Down | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Down | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…561ebacked Up | 41c | 36.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…866cbacked Down | 79c | 36.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Down | 33c | 33.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Up | 58c | 23.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Down | 70c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.