MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe438023c0820f9c6dca625bce61376fb95b18a45fff67dd8bfdea5826ad96d96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 20,972$8,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,178.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 13,989$7,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,034.13 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 11,172$6,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,398 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 7,490$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,343.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 7,437$3,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,623.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 2,121$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.48 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 786$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 737.48$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 685.79$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.67 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 423.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.86 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 256.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 146$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 126.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 86.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 75.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 68.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 65.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…b001backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 59.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 58.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 57.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 41.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 39.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 39.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 29.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 26.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 25.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 16.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 19.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.