MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd952a3f7c43d783b1e440d5c9a3b6e3cdf5da60f0bda8264c5484971a1181c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 62c | 10,295$6,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,921.8 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 38c | 3,240$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 49c | 2,014$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 1,826$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 42c | 1,765$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.54 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 40c | 634$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.6 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 54c | 422$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.88 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 54c | 260.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 240.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 224$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 50c | 211$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 46c | 193.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 38c | 172.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…3efebacked Under | 63c | 159.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 118$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 103.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 59.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Over | 45c | 46.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 45.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 56c | 35.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 30.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Under | 41c | 26.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 25.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 16.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 19.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.