MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5463e4aa60caa17d7602c340ec3d428d6558547951fb33f6eb8e630650d89b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 34,444$18,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,855.35 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 32,706$15,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,003.04 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 23,694$12,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,917.37 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 14,293$6,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,574.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 12,039$5,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,658.19 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 11,399$5,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,243.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 3,494$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 2,228$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 2,214$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.29 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,778$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 1,004$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.66 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 46c | 985$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.01 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 831.87$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 64c | 830.34$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.76 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Under | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 616$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 56c | 538$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.42 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 53c | 482$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.54 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 55c | 338.25$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 54c | 311.97$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.51 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 63c | 307$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 46c | 235.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 199$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 194.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 182$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…e0e7backed Under | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 176$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 45c | 175.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…f43fbacked Over | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 79c | 155.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 54c | 102.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 91.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 26c | 75.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 72.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…f381backed Over | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 47c | 54.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 51.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 30.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…b001backed Over | 53c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 53c | 25.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 50c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Over | 64c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Under | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 16.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 19.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.