MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe460be49b16836f7be7a8fae496d894e1eac4960a761ec9de0e7cfd3fb9bcc29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 14,293$5,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,487.03 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 9,917$3,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,388.98 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 9,645$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 4,444$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.2 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 3,620$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 3,446$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.76 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 3,021$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.21 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 2,500$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 2,395$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.05 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 2,170$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 1,340$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.19 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 993.39$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.1 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 940$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 890$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.1 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 737.7$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…b9a6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 720$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 606.82$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 555$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.45 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22c…4942backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 507.93$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 382.06$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.95 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 380.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.26 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 267.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 219.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…84bcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 212.07$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 211.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 63.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 60.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 55.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 47.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b98…0ca6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 26.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.