South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4960594c53be5c4e5f1c9c009770aebe0469cd33bec5ddb9aab63178da6dec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 54c | 13,839$7,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500.52 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 12,238$5,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,739.6 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 53c | 3,086$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.06 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Over | 1c | 2,090$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 47c | 2,051$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.83 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 1,846$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.68 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 7c | 1,333$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…d8f0backed Over | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 55c | 898.35$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.93 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 73c | 600$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 44c | 569.63$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.64 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…191cbacked Over | 21c | 428.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 26c | 390.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 58c | 384.52$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Over | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 16c | 254.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 31c | 206$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 42c | 193.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 48c | 177.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 166.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…7387backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 48c | 152.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 47c | 134.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 10c | 122.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 42c | 79.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 60c | 74.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efb…dd8abacked Under | 60c | 65.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 47c | 32.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 28.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Under | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…8dcbbacked Over | 45c | 26.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 61c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5this page
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: CD Riestra O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CD Riestra won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)CD Riestra won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-2.5)CD Riestra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.