Tennis · resolved market
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marko Topo vs Hugo Gaston
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a62302184ad7273653f726fa2202c6c8c4bde49167b8017a80319df986866c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hugo Gastonof Marko Topo, Hugo Gaston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Marko Topo | 11c | 6,339$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.87 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Marko Topo | 6c | 4,321$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.94 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Marko Topo | 9c | 3,813$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.56 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Marko Topo | 20c | 3,021$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.6 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Hugo Gaston | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 949 | 68.1%646 W · 303 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Hugo Gaston | 66c | 999.96$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 322 | 47.2%152 W · 170 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marko Topo | 17c | 925.05$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed Marko Topo | 34c | 909.72$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.3 | 567 | 57.1%324 W · 243 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…a606backed Hugo Gaston | 77c | 595.25$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.91 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Marko Topo | 7c | 544.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 373 | 30.3%113 W · 260 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Marko Topo | 15c | 335.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Marko Topo | 32c | 332.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 452 | 51.8%234 W · 218 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Marko Topo | 8c | 323.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 2,868 | 49.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Marko Topo | 21c | 300.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 988 | 41.3%408 W · 580 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Hugo Gaston | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Hugo Gaston | 67c | 289.34$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Marko Topo | 9c | 285.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2,099 | 44.5%935 W · 1,164 L | -51.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Hugo Gaston | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Marko Topo | 21c | 170.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Marko Topo | 7c | 167.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Marko Topo | 12c | 157.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Hugo Gaston | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Hugo Gaston | 66c | 143.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 478 | 52.1%249 W · 229 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Marko Topo | 16c | 138.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Marko Topo | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Marko Topo | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 871 | 35.4%308 W · 563 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marko Topo | 17c | 113.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Marko Topo | 34c | 107.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…4e7cbacked Marko Topo | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Hugo Gaston | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Marko Topo | 32c | 77.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marko Topo | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Marko Topo | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Marko Topo | 34c | 59.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Marko Topo | 34c | 48.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…a181backed Marko Topo | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Hugo Gaston | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Hugo Gaston | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Hugo Gaston | 66c | 37.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…5892backed Hugo Gaston | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…d0dfbacked Hugo Gaston | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 172 | 69.2%119 W · 53 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.