Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fairfield Stags vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 141.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b35ff3638091c2e4b2b46bef16c9f93dc7f1dbdc333496688bd5b53f0207ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $632,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $632,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $632,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 49c | 592,060$287,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304,399.73 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 52c | 175,000$91,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,000 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 52c | 150,000$78,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,000 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 50c | 100,000$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 53c | 26,941$14,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,278.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 25,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 19,892$9,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,519.78 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Under | 52c | 5,200$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 52c | 4,150$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.47 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 2,986$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.58 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 52c | 2,250$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 52c | 1,814$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.42 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed Under | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 47c | 423.41$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.41 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 48c | 400$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 50c | 305$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Under | 53c | 175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3951…c5b2backed Under | 54c | 173.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…7693backed Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 52c | 112.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 53c | 106.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 53c | 77.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…28a9backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Under | 51c | 47.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 44.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Under | 51c | 38.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Under | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -66%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…3a4abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 53c | 24.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…6f40backed Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…27a9backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fairfield Stags vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 141.5this page
- Fairfield Stags vs. Marist Red FoxesMarist Red Foxes won
- Fairfield Stags vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: Marist Red Foxes (-8.5)Marist Red Foxes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.