MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4fcd8e733b6c2caa2f3081cf5e6e322fa7d158225d18e6d7a5ab747f4524ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 57c | 3,969$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,267.41 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 3,219$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.44 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 48c | 2,900$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 40c | 2,188$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.46 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 1,814$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.97 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 44c | 1,680$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.8 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 44c | 919$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.64 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 43c | 900$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 53c | 317.64$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Under | 57c | 246$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201f…edd1backed Over | 44c | 238.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…e4a0backed Over | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 48c | 206.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 43c | 184.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 179.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 54c | 154.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 129$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Over | 36c | 103.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 85.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…cd83backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 45c | 43.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Under | 67c | 39.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f2b5backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Dodgers vs. PhilliesDodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.