MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53062bbc77fd28384a6586cf2806d22ca1e75fe32e179259e4423f703354579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 1,106$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.21 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…1d6fbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 546.88$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 540.72$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 405.7$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.92 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 386.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 261.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…a58fbacked San Diego Padres | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 189.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…dfb5backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 155.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 154.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 116.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 99.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 97.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 60.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 58.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 58.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed San Diego Padres | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 46.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 43.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 217 | 53.9%117 W · 100 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 17.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.