MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72a8bf212ec9a249a8e72a41aa6962003e6d717e727ffd7a88673d720b90af2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 47c | 15,249$7,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,081.88 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 10,666$5,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,651.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 55c | 8,285$4,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,527.46 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 5,148$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,904.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 2,444$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 1,876$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.64 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,210$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 1,195$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.35 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 697.2$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 574.54$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 559.68$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 403.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.62 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 364.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 49c | 323.02$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.74 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 313.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 52c | 256.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 49c | 158.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 56c | 151.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 68c | 147.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 46c | 118.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Under | 65c | 113.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 111.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 56c | 102.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 51c | 96.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 42c | 96.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 48c | 87.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 49c | 84.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 30c | 53.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 44c | 44.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 44c | 44.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Over | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Under | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a968backed Under | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Under | 52c | 31.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 53c | 24.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…e464backed Over | 48c | 23.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 67c | 20.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.