MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a051a24eeb738780081955ceeb926a764eced1b38aceacf85f15e364088e789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 62c | 14,450$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 11,838$4,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,379.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 9,099$6,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,520.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 69c | 2,900$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 1,326$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 38c | 1,205$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.23 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 1,002$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 620.12$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 33c | 563.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.73 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 17c | 510$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 437.77$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 79c | 379.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 33c | 302.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 21c | 293.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 70c | 268.69$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 244$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 198.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 72c | 146.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 141.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 26c | 134.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 22c | 113.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 60c | 101.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 42c | 99.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 67c | 89.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 70c | 87.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 78c | 82.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 80.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 78c | 76.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 46c | 70.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 68.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 78c | 65.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 65c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 32c | 56.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 57c | 54.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Over | 28c | 47.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 69c | 43.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 79c | 42.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Under | 74c | 36.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Under | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Under | 62c | 21.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.