MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e404b8b5e3bcae50bbd8d5a9f789923b8c3dae3883b5bbadbd74fe2218569cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 6,735$5,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 5,465$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 3,146$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,742$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.03 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,425$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,095$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.05 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 805.12$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 776$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.16 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 559.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 510.16$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 502.85$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.17 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 21c | 472.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 400.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 400.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 390.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 385.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 315.61$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 273$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 256.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 201.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 168.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Seattle Mariners | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 99.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 81.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 64.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7067…38dbbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 51.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 38.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 36.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 33.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 26.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…02debacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f96backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.