MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd612187bea47b40dd44694c8d6f87b45b5f245f275903cf6f1fa522a74083c0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 10,249$5,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,111.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 7,730$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,861.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,492$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 1,296$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 1,199$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 48c | 1,103$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.31 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 32c | 905.18$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Under | 50c | 779.5$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.63 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 46c | 482.24$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.44 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 382.21$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 43c | 169$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 12c | 149.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 141.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…03bdbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 50c | 79.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 49c | 76.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 68.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Under | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 33c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 46c | 43.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…f0bdbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 52c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…dfb5backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 49c | 21.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Under | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 77c | 17.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.