Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5367af7da44a87aae98d3872bc6b9ac52c19915d0af11c9d25d45b0f081f60f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 550.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 417.24$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 304.58$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 274.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 16c | 263.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 24c | 258.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 77c | 224.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 27c | 207.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 80c | 169.9$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 166.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 160.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 154.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 33c | 153.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 75c | 144.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 23c | 142.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 130.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 120.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 26c | 97.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 74c | 81.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 79.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 21c | 75.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 29c | 72.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 22c | 67.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 18c | 61.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 61.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 77c | 52.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 50.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 20c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 49.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 30c | 49.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 79c | 45.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…7ef8backed Yes | 29c | 41.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 38.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 71c | 35.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 64c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.