Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1a3c0a6f90fd59a8561162e8c24d5ad06be5265adfa12c6dc0e25aecb34240b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 14c | 2,145$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 425.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 366.14$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.23 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 23c | 340.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.42 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 60c | 312.75$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 72c | 308.22$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.92 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 203.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 42c | 173.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 17c | 167$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.88 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 147.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 147.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 70c | 125.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 34c | 114$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 106.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 101.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 101.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…0807backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 30c | 98.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 96.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 93.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 16c | 92.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 64c | 89.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…9816backed Yes | 58c | 86.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 21c | 80.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 26c | 74.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 65.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 25c | 60.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 21c | 55.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 63c | 55.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 54.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 52c | 45.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 76c | 45.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 30c | 41.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…bd35backed Yes | 29c | 40.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 28c | 40.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…d8d4backed Yes | 29c | 39.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 73c | 38.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff4…e1aabacked No | 28c | 38.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 79c | 38.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 78c | 32.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…c672backed No | 72c | 27.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…62bbbacked No | 78c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 24.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…4238backed No | 74c | 23.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…d193backed No | 72c | 22.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 76c | 21.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 77c | 17.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 70c | 15.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 78c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.