Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53c897572d26bb6df468873ab07cfe97722ba792c05dd61a159233b011ed1e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 5,465$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 2c | 3,857$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,533$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…b9edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,974$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,542$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 1c | 1,292$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 1c | 904.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 5c | 719.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 667.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 492.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 3c | 488.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 59c | 400$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 12c | 360.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 265.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 247.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 25c | 238.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 237.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 7c | 229.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 5c | 229.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed No | 78c | 212.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 32c | 206.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e75…f89ebacked Yes | 10c | 139.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 129.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 122.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 42c | 122.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 63c | 98.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 60c | 97.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 39c | 95.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 27c | 73.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 28c | 47.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 45.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed No | 73c | 43.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 39c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed No | 58c | 35.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…7c16backed Yes | 38c | 33.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked No | 64c | 31.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 67c | 31.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 76c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 62c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 80c | 15.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 78c | 15.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.