Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87711ec986613fa2b4170906b3ff61b552cafa354626ac0bb313ac9160c22e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,902$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…7f60backed Yes | 25c | 1,938$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.36 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 999.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 660$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 634.7$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 4c | 553.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 482.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 10c | 459.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 76c | 425.9$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 415.48$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 23c | 412.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 25c | 405.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 4c | 382.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 8c | 355$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 74c | 354.5$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 314.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 310.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 25c | 292.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 287.29$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378d…a852backed Yes | 24c | 216.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 208.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 6c | 208.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 6c | 198.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 76c | 186.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 7c | 174.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 167.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 167.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 24c | 151.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 78c | 143.28$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 8c | 142.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 17c | 138.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 8c | 134.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 133.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 16c | 128.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 126.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 11c | 121.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 17c | 121.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 11c | 118.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…7f2abacked Yes | 11c | 101.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 16c | 96.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 89.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 89.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 79c | 65.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 75c | 49.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 45.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 44.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 42.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 42.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 39.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 76c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44b…3b96backed No | 78c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.