Tennis · resolved market
Pau: Raphael Collignon vs Luca Van Assche
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c906f79fd1aeed1ef99001bcd6b203cb2d89df5195cea9dd9f1675a6c4087d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Collignonof Collignon, Assche
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Assche | 20c | 1,450$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.1 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Assche | 34c | 1,073$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.5 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Assche | 14c | 944.15$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.07 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Assche | 1c | 874$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Collignon | 57c | 462.86$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.86 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Assche | 29c | 451.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Collignon | 74c | 402.7$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Assche | 22c | 319.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Collignon | 63c | 306$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Collignon | 64c | 259.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Collignon | 69c | 242.29$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a29dbacked Assche | 44c | 241.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc44…e036backed Collignon | 54c | 211$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Assche | 15c | 210.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Collignon | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Collignon | 62c | 193.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Collignon | 58c | 172.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Assche | 38c | 136.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Assche | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Assche | 24c | 104.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Assche | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Assche | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Collignon | 79c | 99.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Assche | 17c | 76.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Collignon | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Assche | 42c | 54.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Collignon | 66c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…1e06backed Assche | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked Collignon | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Collignon | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Collignon | 61c | 39.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +6.4wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Collignon | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 287 | 64.1%184 W · 103 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Collignon | 73c | 33.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Collignon | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Assche | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Collignon | 64c | 31.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Assche | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…9169backed Collignon | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.