MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe678418ccc3713e7fea4ae7fbe94258ff125a21761d90f174ea3f881eda6c0f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Nationals, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cubs | 63c | 38,612$24,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,325.48 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Nationals | 37c | 30,260$11,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,063.76 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…02c7backed Nationals | 37c | 8,841$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,569.92 | 359 | 52.4%188 W · 171 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Nationals | 36c | 5,019$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.15 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 63c | 3,992$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.05 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Nationals | 32c | 3,375$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cubs | 68c | 3,356$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.03 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…a1d9backed Cubs | 64c | 3,313$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Nationals | 34c | 2,199$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.84 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cubs | 64c | 1,653$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.6 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Nationals | 37c | 1,568$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.84 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals | 35c | 1,200$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.32 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.03 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Cubs | 64c | 900$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 62c | 733.3$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.08 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cubs | 64c | 514.92$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.55 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cubs | 63c | 499.98$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cubs | 63c | 462$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.06 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nationals | 36c | 449.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals | 18c | 355.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.48 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals | 43c | 327.34$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.59 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 63c | 324$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Cubs | 79c | 306.81$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.68 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cubs | 50c | 304.28$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Cubs | 63c | 297.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Cubs | 74c | 295.18$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.43 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…7a30backed Nationals | 37c | 270$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Nationals | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Nationals | 37c | 259.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Cubs | 6c | 248.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Cubs | 67c | 225.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…730ebacked Cubs | 64c | 218.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Nationals | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Nationals | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Nationals | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Cubs | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Cubs | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Nationals | 36c | 138$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 313 | 47.9%150 W · 163 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Cubs | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cubs | 63c | 113$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Nationals | 16c | 107.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Cubs | 76c | 97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Cubs | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1451…2915backed Cubs | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Cubs | 66c | 76.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Cubs | 63c | 58.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 207 | 48.8%101 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Nationals | 37c | 55.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Nationals | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…509abacked Nationals | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Nationals | 37c | 51.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Nationals | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Cubs | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 543 | 52.3%284 W · 259 L | +27.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Nationals | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Cubs | 77c | 48.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Cubs | 62c | 38.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Cubs | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Nationals | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 342 | 57.6%197 W · 145 L | +25.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe88c…2f53backed Nationals | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 258 | 57%147 W · 111 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…c981backed Nationals | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 252 | 55.6%140 W · 112 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…3bb8backed Nationals | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…ee5cbacked Cubs | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Cubs | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Cubs | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 207 | 47.8%99 W · 108 L | -11.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1f…8f72backed Nationals | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Cubs | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 291 | 45.4%132 W · 159 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cubs | 72c | 25.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Nationals | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Cubs | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Cubs | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Cubs | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.