NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe679586a9312b4805d85fdb8117bf62a6c9f0d7dce50df790e332e74de4165bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 64c | 4,602$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.35 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Knicks | 38c | 3,480$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308 | 207 | 46.4%96 W · 111 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Knicks | 30c | 690$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.03 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Knicks | 29c | 275.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Magic | 41c | 181$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5072…c02abacked Knicks | 59c | 172$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Knicks | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 38c | 151.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa4…3ba0backed Knicks | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Magic | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…22a9backed Knicks | 24c | 92.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Knicks | 48c | 63.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. KnicksMagic won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.