NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2605414f2b08ce1198250fe1359f29cd84249191f4eb6979c382249ee7f6e59

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,264 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Over	48c	35,025$16,929 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,096.06	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	52c	19,646$10,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,197.49	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Under	51c	7,347$3,747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,746.8	203	52.2%106 W · 97 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	51c	4,990$2,545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,544.9	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	51c	1,099$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.32	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	51c	1,085$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.35	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	51c	1,085$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.35	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	227	52%118 W · 109 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe3…0bb4backed Over	45c	788$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.4	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c09…9863backed Under	55c	788$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Over	48c	665$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.82	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over	49c	510.2$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.2	140	40%56 W · 84 L	+10.4wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Over	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-5.6wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	51c	285.24$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.47	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	48c	244.57$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.72	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fe…6a33backed Over	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	52c	107.42$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.86	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a47…b0c7backed Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde8…c52fbacked Over	47c	102.13$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.13	185	36.2%67 W · 118 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfeee…a4a9backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	63	60.3%38 W · 25 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	51c	92.92$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.75	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x039a…b09dbacked Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	47c	57$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.21	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x486e…62c7backed Over	48c	48$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.96	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+5.0wins	+0.16per pick	42cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Over	50c	39.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.71	284	54.6%155 W · 129 L	-17.9wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	166	58.4%97 W · 69 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event