NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa54b1fb2331f119cc805a7217245abee53ce90fa6607a14c6a7d1023e279cdc9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Magicof Knicks, Magic
Resolved: Nov 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $105,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,542 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Magic	50c	67,492$33,569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33,922.76	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks	50c	30,955$15,601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,600.76	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Knicks	50c	15,000$7,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,500	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Magic	49c	10,200$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,199.99	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks	50c	9,990$5,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,044.9	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Knicks	54c	5,607$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Knicks	56c	4,506$2,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,519.83	133	55.6%74 W · 59 L	+8.7wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic	44c	3,639$1,601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,038	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Knicks	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530	259	45.6%118 W · 141 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Knicks	55c	2,500$1,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,374.99	164	46.3%76 W · 88 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks	50c	2,366$1,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.63	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks	50c	2,101$1,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,061.11	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Magic	45c	1,500$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$824.96	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Magic	46c	1,197$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640.77	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	46c	1,190$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$646.55	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Magic	47c	1,060$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.22	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Knicks	51c	1,059$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.09	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Knicks	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	124	51.6%64 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef87…7231backed Knicks	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	46c	904.18$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.55	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Knicks	56c	892.86$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Knicks	50c	801.01$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.83	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Knicks	50c	797.26$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.94	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Knicks	51c	698.04$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356	208	51.4%107 W · 101 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e2…5ec0backed Knicks	52c	673.08$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	62	53.2%33 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Magic	48c	612.8$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.66	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Knicks	50c	555$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.55	139	43.2%60 W · 79 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	47c	526.19$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.06	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Knicks	52c	480.77$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e79…ff8bbacked Knicks	56c	356.74$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	174	56.9%99 W · 75 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks	51c	295$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.45	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Knicks	56c	267.86$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e4…6c67backed Knicks	54c	224.67$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.32	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Magic	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	230	43%99 W · 131 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Knicks	52c	216$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.32	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d09…b4b5backed Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Knicks	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Knicks	53c	150$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	306	41.8%128 W · 178 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Knicks	54c	125$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Knicks	53c	120$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x230a…59b1backed Knicks	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Magic	45c	111$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.05	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Knicks	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Knicks	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Knicks	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	189	55%104 W · 85 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f79…7ed4backed Magic	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	111	29.7%33 W · 78 L	-9.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ae…5fdebacked Knicks	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Knicks	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	235	50.2%118 W · 117 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ae…32c2backed Knicks	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53f…b4c8backed Knicks	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	48c	76.92$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Magic	47c	76$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.28	81	42%34 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Knicks	56c	71.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a0b…b9f8backed Knicks	52c	67.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-6.3wins	-0.17per pick	59cpaid	-27%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc4f1…f0e8backed Knicks	54c	64.81$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Knicks	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	154	48.7%75 W · 79 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Magic	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Magic	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Knicks	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0138…8451backed Knicks	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Knicks	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	134	56.7%76 W · 58 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed Knicks	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Knicks	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	149	53%79 W · 70 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Knicks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	195	43.1%84 W · 111 L	-12.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b2…3886backed Knicks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…0f01backed Knicks	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Knicks	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Knicks	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc76…d76dbacked Magic	45c	28.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.89	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Knicks	54c	28.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Knicks	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Knicks	52c	20.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event