NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c954a6d4721f7a725d2092f0811e35865bea4a0edadc5e1d36125851b339d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 49c | 15,559$7,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,680.57 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,257$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Over | 50c | 3,998$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.24 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 1,125$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 1,105$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Over | 48c | 677.08$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.08 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 49c | 446.69$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.81 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 408.67$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.83 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 401$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.51 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 401$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.51 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…a7b6backed Over | 51c | 398.04$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…877fbacked Under | 50c | 397.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Over | 47c | 201$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…9624backed Under | 53c | 193$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…958cbacked Over | 47c | 177$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…c3a5backed Under | 53c | 168$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 124.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…f87cbacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…3876backed Under | 51c | 70.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…f769backed Over | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 49c | 49.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…e7f9backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 51c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4697…8b6ebacked Over | 49c | 28.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…ba00backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. KnicksMagic won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.