NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b607aa075c668831570ab82588061d0848b08da72b3cfa084d6ebcaab180cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Knicks, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Magic | 54c | 57,331$31,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,147.22 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 46c | 40,352$18,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,593.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Knicks | 47c | 31,805$14,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,958.75 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Magic | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,099.99 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Magic | 53c | 20,842$11,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,795.95 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Knicks | 46c | 11,132$5,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,120.72 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Knicks | 48c | 11,111$5,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,333.27 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 45c | 10,130$4,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,609.05 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic | 54c | 6,607$3,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.2 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Magic | 51c | 6,442$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,166.51 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 47c | 5,129$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Magic | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Knicks | 47c | 4,125$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.91 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Magic | 53c | 3,400$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.98 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Knicks | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Knicks | 47c | 1,900$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Knicks | 47c | 1,456$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.55 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 47c | 1,419$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.75 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks | 48c | 1,113$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.97 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Knicks | 46c | 1,100$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Knicks | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Magic | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Knicks | 51c | 980.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Magic | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked Magic | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 50c | 749.71$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 46c | 712.15$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Knicks | 47c | 705.21$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Knicks | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…e611backed Knicks | 47c | 625.21$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f6…6e69backed Magic | 52c | 598.04$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.04 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…6dffbacked Knicks | 48c | 597.92$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 51c | 588$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Knicks | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Magic | 52c | 455.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.64 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Knicks | 46c | 435.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Knicks | 45c | 419$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Knicks | 49c | 400.1$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Knicks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Knicks | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Knicks | 52c | 282.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.03 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Knicks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Knicks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 38.1%135 W · 219 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db5…4d00backed Magic | 71c | 211.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 49c | 209.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 45c | 207.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Magic | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Knicks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3c…922dbacked Knicks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Magic | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Knicks | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks | 29c | 196.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…801fbacked Knicks | 51c | 195.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Magic | 48c | 184.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Magic | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…50e1backed Knicks | 52c | 132.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Magic | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Knicks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a47…b0c7backed Knicks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Knicks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Magic | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…1fa6backed Knicks | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Knicks | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Knicks | 47c | 66.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Knicks | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Knicks | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Knicks | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Knicks | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Magic | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Knicks | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Knicks | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Knicks | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Magic | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Magic | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. KnicksMagic won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.