Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68321f5413f944f61ed849916a912d44b69b2cf9ce5626014d96416553470da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 568.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 339.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 47c | 272.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 192.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 189.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 177.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 175.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 169.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 159.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 154.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 114.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 33c | 108$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 105.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 57c | 104.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 42c | 99.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 87.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 52c | 81.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 40c | 75.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 57c | 70.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 60c | 69.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 21c | 66.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 61c | 65.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 25c | 63.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 62.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 49.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 62c | 46.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 22c | 46.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 40.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 37.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 45c | 30.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…92d1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 26.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 80c | 26.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 24.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 48c | 22.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 72c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…da80backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 74c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 75c | 17.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.