South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe69b908ca47de21480f88ef0f45d8a7de9dfcfa3c2871421432ee13e9c019fc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mirassol FCof Santos FC, Mirassol FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Santos FC | 15c | 3,062$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.51 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Santos FC | 28c | 1,992$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Santos FC | 29c | 1,657$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mirassol FC | 70c | 1,290$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.33 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mirassol FC | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Mirassol FC | 72c | 256$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mirassol FC | 72c | 244.86$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…9175backed Santos FC | 32c | 242.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mirassol FC | 72c | 224$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Mirassol FC | 72c | 223.12$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Santos FC | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Mirassol FC | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…138fbacked Santos FC | 29c | 162.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…e902backed Santos FC | 28c | 140.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Mirassol FC | 71c | 131.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Mirassol FC | 71c | 78.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Santos FC | 29c | 65.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mirassol FC | 71c | 55.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Mirassol FC | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Santos FC | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Santos FC | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Santos FC | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Mirassol FC | 69c | 23.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Mirassol FC | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Mirassol FC | 72c | 17.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Mirassol FC | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)this page
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: Santos FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC: Santos FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.