TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
WW Teamof WW Team, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4572…83ffbacked Virtus.pro51c11,460$5,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,866.432348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked WW Team40c4,913$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,942.193,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked WW Team52c4,218$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.273,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed WW Team44c3,763$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.064,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked WW Team48c3,200$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.9935847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Virtus.pro42c2,786$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.141,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked Virtus.pro55c2,386$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.294768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Virtus.pro73c2,347$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.942,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked WW Team55c2,311$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9663157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Virtus.pro53c2,004$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.3452150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked Virtus.pro52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014659.6%87 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24a5…50f0backed WW Team48c1,502$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.081216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed WW Team53c1,128$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.572,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed WW Team41c1,115$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.4769732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked WW Team65c1,026$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.1260953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Virtus.pro45c966.18$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.1919447.4%92 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8a…9dfcbacked Virtus.pro53c874.98$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.743839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77e1…28b8backed Virtus.pro59c842.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked WW Team67c724$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9224447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed WW Team39c723.97$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.055,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd647…08a5backed WW Team24c719.74$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed WW Team49c633.38$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.074,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Virtus.pro54c633.15$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.35944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick71cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2172…5cdabacked WW Team48c629.66$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.662166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked WW Team55c565.2$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.3413852.9%73 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed WW Team77c545.51$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9693261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe721…62e3backed Virtus.pro60c541.92$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed WW Team54c525.08$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.246,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed Virtus.pro51c519.58$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9950947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed WW Team46c499.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9a…1152backed WW Team78c475.54$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.621586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed WW Team56c470.62$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.591,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked WW Team51c465.19$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.225,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca8…ecd4backed Virtus.pro34c443.23$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Virtus.pro50c417.86$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.266855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Virtus.pro51c409.03$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.712,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Virtus.pro49c407.08$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19853034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa425…52fabacked WW Team73c397.88$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.431040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Virtus.pro52c382.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed WW Team49c373.97$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.9341848.8%204 W · 214 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Virtus.pro50c370.37$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18668659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked WW Team44c349.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19610644.3%47 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Virtus.pro47c330.3$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.241,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked WW Team44c329.7$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1619548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Virtus.pro34c324.16$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.614,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b03…d1f2backed Virtus.pro29c322.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.821457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed WW Team53c319.48$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.166942%29 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04d3…7fd3backed WW Team48c315.42$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.692240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed WW Team51c308.1$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9719748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed WW Team49c307.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.712548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c7…4332backed Virtus.pro55c305.96$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2817644.3%78 W · 98 L-17.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed Virtus.pro32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620045.5%91 W · 109 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Virtus.pro21c298.13$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.034,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Virtus.pro44c292.5$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.551,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x015f…d051backed WW Team46c282.15$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed Virtus.pro55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15021845.9%100 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7eb…eef7backed WW Team51c266.13$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.43351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3438…7f8abacked Virtus.pro64c250.65$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.59540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa955…9431backed Virtus.pro39c248.89$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Virtus.pro52c246.6$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.822253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed WW Team63c244.77$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.751942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824a…3952backed Virtus.pro55c227.27$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12514139.7%56 W · 85 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…9589backed Virtus.pro43c222.76$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.929455.8%164 W · 130 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6a…7dccbacked Virtus.pro55c210.91$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1166550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed WW Team39c200.64$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.751,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Virtus.pro58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Virtus.pro43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1433146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6745…1ee0backed Virtus.pro52c196.54$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked WW Team44c196$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8543152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x667c…9293backed Virtus.pro20c189.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked Virtus.pro41c184.52$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7549651.2%254 W · 242 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff2…8ea1backed Virtus.pro55c180.49$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.782850%14 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed Virtus.pro38c180$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.413043.8%57 W · 73 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Virtus.pro57c176.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048242.1%203 W · 279 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked WW Team59c170.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2524038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Virtus.pro66c163.25$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3841475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed Virtus.pro34c156.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0432138.3%123 W · 198 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed WW Team48c148$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9649941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked Virtus.pro67c146$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8228454.9%156 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked WW Team69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.938454.8%46 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed Virtus.pro54c143.9$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3512750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed Virtus.pro44c125$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5555749.7%277 W · 280 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Virtus.pro39c114.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.691,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked WW Team45c113.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.441,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed WW Team43c112.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1719449%95 W · 99 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Virtus.pro60c110$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6627156.1%152 W · 119 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc633…b4e7backed Virtus.pro51c104.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.427653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Virtus.pro43c100.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.942,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Virtus.pro44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2972353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed WW Team51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4912340.7%50 W · 73 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Virtus.pro53c99.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9985851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Virtus.pro13c93.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.489046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9a…73fabacked Virtus.pro55c86.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7539353.2%209 W · 184 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe821…3128backed Virtus.pro58c85.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502763%17 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Virtus.pro56c79.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6839038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed WW Team58c78.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3979951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked WW Team65c78.97$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.367,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed WW Team36c75.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4635141.6%146 W · 205 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8f…7b12backed Virtus.pro58c74.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Virtus.pro38c72.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.