Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6f99c2cd6c8bdc961a8591977f1c9cadb2db7dd8679ed77716255000a2b03a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 43c | 3,373$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.94 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 65c | 2,206$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.58 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Up | 39c | 761.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…044cbacked Up | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 40c | 435.8$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.11 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…0b8fbacked Up | 55c | 400$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Up | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 48c | 292.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 43c | 248.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 62c | 241.48$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…413bbacked Down | 39c | 239.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed Down | 32c | 234$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Up | 75c | 200.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…dd94backed Up | 78c | 186.58$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Down | 54c | 180.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Up | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…d47cbacked Up | 38c | 143.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 77c | 139.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Up | 41c | 122$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 33c | 100.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Up | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Up | 69c | 72.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…000cbacked Up | 70c | 71.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Down | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…1af3backed Up | 47c | 51.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Up | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…7773backed Down | 45c | 49.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Up | 42c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 46c | 44.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…b4c4backed Down | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Down | 50c | 33.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Down | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Down | 51c | 28.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…3aeabacked Up | 52c | 24.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Up | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…8d89backed Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.