Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7198833d34a939bea36023dda1526840332d415b0fbba7e677ddea5aabef73a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 60c | 627.6$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.24 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 476.12$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 371.62$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 38c | 310.39$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 47c | 305.11$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 152.42$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 142.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 129$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 126.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 119.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 112.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 49c | 104.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 89.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 87.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 83.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 81.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 37c | 81.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 36c | 80.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 75.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 69.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 68c | 65.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 51c | 64.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 52c | 63.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 58c | 62.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 59.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 51c | 54.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 28c | 41.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 59c | 26.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 47c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.