Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20ed902dc36301670312064917ab6ed425fcc34a971c6158c31009e5573a630f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 833.12$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.71 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 21c | 785.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.26 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 779.18$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.11 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 715.83$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.35 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 507.33$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 318.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 18c | 275.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.37 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 221.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 178.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 63c | 163.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 342 | 21.3%73 W · 269 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 39c | 159.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 142.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 129.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 113.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 112.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 107.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 106.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 104.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 101.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 96.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 91.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 72c | 86.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 86.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 84.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 82.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 81.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 64c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 452 | 40.7%184 W · 268 L | +29.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 59.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 57.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 575 | 54.3%312 W · 263 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 57.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 52c | 54.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 50.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1,186 | 50.8%603 W · 583 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 48.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 459 | 59.5%273 W · 186 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 45c | 46.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 66c | 44.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 161 | 70.8%114 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 40.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 27c | 39.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,406 | 30.9%435 W · 971 L | -93.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 79c | 38.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 165 | 68.5%113 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 75c | 38.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 216 | 71.3%154 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 70c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,183 | 54.9%650 W · 533 L | +50.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 46c | 27.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 72c | 25.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 54c | 22.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 65c | 18.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 690 | 75.2%519 W · 171 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.