Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe71d4f8314339681f0f86b48051d1d4e87c1745a6f95226249b5ed97cf28b444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 15c | 525.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 72c | 412.26$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.17 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 353.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 73c | 327.04$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 259.67$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 236.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 13c | 230.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 195.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 178.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 19c | 152.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 66c | 149.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 145.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 140.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 125.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 18c | 124.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 80c | 121$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 35c | 120.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 80c | 111.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 108.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 29c | 102.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 56c | 92.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 14c | 90.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 37c | 87.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 87.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 36c | 85.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 82.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 81.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 80.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 18c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 77c | 79.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 14c | 77.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 79c | 73.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 24c | 69.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 66.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 65.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed Yes | 78c | 56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 53.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 49.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 48.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 46c | 46.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 42.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 39.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 39.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 31c | 37.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 34.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 79c | 33.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 67c | 33.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 36c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…56a5backed Yes | 77c | 30.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 28.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 27.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 78c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 76c | 20.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 65c | 20.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 78c | 17.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…8e7cbacked No | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 89°F or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.