TailMyPicks
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2of G2, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$392,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$427,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 425 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9750…263dbacked BetBoom Team41c42,399$17,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,230.73036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed G257c23,358$13,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,156.372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed BetBoom Team43c18,327$7,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,888.3914441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed G257c16,939$9,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,283.7822049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed G246c13,475$6,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,320.6167041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed G258c13,394$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,594.468750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team43c13,120$5,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,648.626,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed BetBoom Team38c12,704$4,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,787.686650%33 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed G257c9,551$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,106.8130340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed BetBoom Team46c8,423$3,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,871.4821941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed G251c7,230$3,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.5356732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed G267c6,681$4,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.6729858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed G246c6,539$3,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,508.6962137.7%234 W · 387 L-23.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed BetBoom Team25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe705…f910backed G263c5,955$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.73751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked BetBoom Team1c5,555$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5513416.4%22 W · 112 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked BetBoom Team37c5,264$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.8619529.2%57 W · 138 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked BetBoom Team57c5,244$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,986.6177052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed BetBoom Team51c5,012$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.6257358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed BetBoom Team57c4,760$2,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.764233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed BetBoom Team47c4,748$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.3831345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked BetBoom Team40c4,306$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.285750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed G259c4,288$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.2623343.8%102 W · 131 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked G253c3,932$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.5814954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked G253c3,627$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.3232752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked BetBoom Team43c3,466$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.581,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked BetBoom Team47c3,271$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.3875545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team21c3,224$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.382,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked G262c3,194$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.617948.1%38 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed BetBoom Team40c3,010$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.5936742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed BetBoom Team42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked G263c2,928$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.659148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed G275c2,925$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.1711655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G255c2,739$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.45,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BetBoom Team41c2,718$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.534,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed G256c2,687$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.4235254%190 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed G255c2,656$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.8264046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed BetBoom Team26c2,520$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.9461638.1%235 W · 381 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked BetBoom Team41c2,409$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.023,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked BetBoom Team44c2,214$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.1916248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team44c2,071$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.697,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed BetBoom Team48c2,035$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.739850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BetBoom Team56c2,006$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.3664652.8%341 W · 305 L+26.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked G255c1,931$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.083,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed G265c1,895$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.188846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked G262c1,883$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.9898352.4%515 W · 468 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked BetBoom Team49c1,806$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.4536240.3%146 W · 216 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BetBoom Team42c1,768$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.1878939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed BetBoom Team60c1,751$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.9112454%67 W · 57 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked BetBoom Team43c1,637$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.7281544.4%362 W · 453 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed G259c1,579$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.5424346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed G255c1,559$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.1525042.8%107 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked G255c1,544$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.4926037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked BetBoom Team30c1,527$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.948232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed G242c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked G274c1,470$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.794163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed BetBoom Team39c1,468$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.2812452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62a1…d53ebacked G243c1,436$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.517930.2%54 W · 125 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked G268c1,424$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.5153545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8f…bd32backed G272c1,381$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.87966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked G244c1,370$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.7812465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04e…e600backed G279c1,368$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked BetBoom Team36c1,336$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.835550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked BetBoom Team69c1,305$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.4517450.6%88 W · 86 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BetBoom Team40c1,279$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.745,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed BetBoom Team44c1,254$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.8124944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked BetBoom Team57c1,237$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9545357.2%259 W · 194 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed G260c1,213$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.224,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…e615backed G262c1,170$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.533568.6%24 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed BetBoom Team38c1,137$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4636554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed G274c1,134$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.114971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked BetBoom Team64c1,037$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.319552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked BetBoom Team31c1,035$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.6324538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BetBoom Team30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30055736.3%202 W · 355 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked BetBoom Team10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed BetBoom Team49c998.31$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.029554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed BetBoom Team43c980.63$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0346545.6%212 W · 253 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked G250c965.45$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4868353%44 W · 39 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed BetBoom Team43c929.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.5748437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed BetBoom Team46c927.7$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.8514037.1%52 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed G243c910.01$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.746340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb6…ba42backed BetBoom Team46c895.48$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.481770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked G259c816.77$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.8865351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e3…af4bbacked G263c815.78$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.433073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked BetBoom Team45c799.99$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.51,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2b…6813backed BetBoom Team43c792.85$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.932254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed BetBoom Team40c788.08$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.2829052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed G262c788.06$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.464953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbea…8e58backed G257c749.13$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.12254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked BetBoom Team59c736.83$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.7342050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed BetBoom Team46c723.79$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3831452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x708e…7eaebacked BetBoom Team60c704.78$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed BetBoom Team55c702.91$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.5715632.7%51 W · 105 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed BetBoom Team45c695.47$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.171,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed G259c694.97$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.031,54833.9%524 W · 1,024 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed BetBoom Team43c674.62$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.099254.3%50 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed BetBoom Team40c654.15$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.328563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c50…89b6backed G254c643.83$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.2818061.7%111 W · 69 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team33c624.99$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2533232.2%107 W · 225 L-0.8wins0.00per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac7d…6bdabacked G257c617.74$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.