Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe768941e2a154433cc3964caf7fbc5da1f750d05b7c75cf87069c2d01f83c1c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 1,730$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…935bbacked No | 1c | 1,361$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 748.72$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.32 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 2c | 551.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 497.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 483.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 439.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 402.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 78c | 399.99$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 67c | 341.15$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed No | 76c | 320.49$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.03 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 319.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.54 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 12c | 285.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.19 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 279.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.59 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 26c | 249.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 6c | 233.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 10c | 204.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.61 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 55c | 169.37$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 18c | 162.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 35c | 156.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 11c | 155.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 13c | 135.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 18c | 129.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 10c | 127.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 11c | 107.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 107.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 104.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 102.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 68c | 100.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 99.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 80c | 91.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 77c | 85.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 34c | 83.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 26c | 81.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 77.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes | 23c | 77.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed No | 38c | 75.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 22c | 74.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 65.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 63.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 56.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 39c | 56.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 48c | 56.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 69c | 56.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 76c | 47.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 45.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 39c | 41.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 74c | 39.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 40c | 36.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 34.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 40c | 33.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 63c | 32.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 78c | 32.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 70c | 32.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 73c | 31.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 28.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 77c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…e40fbacked Yes | 78c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 17.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.