Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f403edd808df6137c78f1740cda0864076a708b3394e866823789f71e32cf5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2f2…3098backed Yes | 1c | 19,080$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 77c | 1,901$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 1,758$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…dabdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,297$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 1c | 924.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…06d3backed No | 79c | 879.36$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 49c | 863.33$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.61 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 28c | 679$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.94 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed Yes | 44c | 650$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 51c | 537.16$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.03 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 488.06$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 49c | 459.32$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 74c | 402.88$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.78 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 69c | 372.47$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 361.43$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 337.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed No | 58c | 333.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 292.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 251.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 50c | 211.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 14c | 203.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 182$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…b708backed Yes | 52c | 181.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 25c | 173.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 170.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…ae0bbacked Yes | 51c | 164.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 36c | 164.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 140.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 138.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 57c | 128.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 127.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 24c | 121.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 119.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 117.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 43c | 116.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 109.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…0694backed Yes | 22c | 109.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 31c | 104.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 102$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed No | 42c | 101.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 31c | 95.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 55c | 94.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 49c | 93.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 90.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 89.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 55c | 87.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 73c | 86.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 85.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…9a07backed No | 53c | 83.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 60c | 80.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 61c | 78.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 40c | 73.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 16c | 73.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 66c | 73.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 71.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 69.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 62.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 24c | 58.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 56.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 46c | 55.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 42c | 50.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 48.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4215backed Yes | 44c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 41c | 45.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 58c | 44.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 53c | 44.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 47c | 44.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 66c | 43.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 62c | 41.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 63c | 40.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 40.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 45c | 40.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 40c | 40.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 57c | 38.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 47c | 38.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 47c | 38.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked No | 52c | 37.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 54c | 36.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 56c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 74c | 35.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 54c | 35.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 41c | 29.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 58c | 29.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 43c | 28.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 48c | 25.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 57c | 25.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 58c | 24.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 43c | 24.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.