Fifa International · resolved market
Raphinha: 4+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe77b83e4750fff4e34e778ca8a2e98347f13126a940d786f273550caf584d454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce7c…17cfbacked Yes | 46c | 219.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Yes | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 43c | 46.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 56c | 23.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 452 | 54.6%247 W · 205 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1905…cd65backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raphinha: 4+ shotsthis page
- Casemiro: 1+ goalsNo won
- Douglas Santos: 1+ assistsNo won
- Endrick: 1+ goalsNo won
- Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goalsNo won
- Josué Duverger: 4+ savesNo won
- Josué Duverger: 5+ savesNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assistsYes won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luiz Henrique: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luiz Henrique: 2+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ shotsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 2+ assistsNo won
- Raphinha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 5+ shotsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.