Fifa International · resolved market
Raphinha: 1+ assists
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6877d45260946baf8d151917a00cf7db612e223f1bb73cfd7607b432f083ad67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 832$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.8 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 49c | 304.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 61c | 215.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 57c | 122.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 48c | 67.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed No | 51c | 52.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +9.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…19cfbacked Yes | 43c | 51.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 228 | 24.6%56 W · 172 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 259 | 45.2%117 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9176backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 151 | 77.5%117 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 57c | 42.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +14.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 66c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…0464backed Yes | 44c | 27.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 184 | 73.4%135 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raphinha: 1+ assiststhis page
- Casemiro: 1+ goalsNo won
- Douglas Santos: 1+ assistsNo won
- Endrick: 1+ goalsNo won
- Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goalsNo won
- Josué Duverger: 4+ savesNo won
- Josué Duverger: 5+ savesNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assistsYes won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luiz Henrique: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luiz Henrique: 2+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ shotsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 2+ assistsNo won
- Raphinha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 4+ shotsNo won
- Raphinha: 5+ shotsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.