Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe790c9ba5c0281aaae364316db15e69dd569ec7e72d907183dd551cfd7e805e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,169$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.1 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 46c | 683.11$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.47 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 60c | 329.36$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…e04bbacked No | 53c | 321.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…a827backed No | 47c | 296.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 79c | 251.16$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 151.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 49c | 117.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 49c | 103.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…aa71backed No | 59c | 101.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…c6c3backed Yes | 20c | 84.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 61.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…b356backed Yes | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 178 | 18.5%33 W · 145 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes | 68c | 24.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 43c | 24.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 60c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will CZ post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.