Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe79ed1718f4a7459f4c79a7e0036ba078a0966c40d323c823e735f87a6e2bf1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf04c…b823backed Yes | 0c | 8,825$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,528$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,157$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 36c | 1,017$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.36 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 41c | 934.14$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.71 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 852.41$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.07 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 27c | 631.06$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 12c | 563.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 499.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…60bbbacked Yes | 15c | 499.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 499.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 343.55$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 13c | 343.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 337.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 331.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 13c | 301.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 248.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 245.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked Yes | 24c | 244.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 9c | 226.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 209.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 15c | 181.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 10c | 179.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 11c | 177.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 163.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 146.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…dc1fbacked Yes | 18c | 137.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 19c | 134.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 129.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 16c | 124.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 44c | 109.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59a…9b0cbacked Yes | 11c | 106.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 106.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 21c | 101.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…9780backed Yes | 16c | 100.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 40c | 99.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 23c | 82.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 14c | 78.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 35c | 77.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 21c | 69.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09a…460abacked Yes | 18c | 59.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 29.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.