Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef64ec6b8e88af22cd3bc3f6d5ec6d75386eb3ccc65fad2438151b4b93702a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked No | 52c | 9,800$5,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,101.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed Yes | 48c | 9,800$4,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,096.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 56c | 967.02$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 19c | 721.89$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 61c | 686.03$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.55 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 3c | 412.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 373.64$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.07 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 365.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 50c | 313.65$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 295.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 48c | 280.69$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 273.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 55c | 245.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 62c | 242.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 46c | 241$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 11c | 209.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 202.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 40c | 201.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 199.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 36c | 195.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 192.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 35c | 144.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 47c | 141.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 45c | 139.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 55c | 137.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 55c | 137.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 36c | 136.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 44c | 123$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 46c | 121.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 61c | 115.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 37c | 114.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…661dbacked Yes | 61c | 103.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5419…fcb2backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 41c | 95.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cb…04c6backed Yes | 44c | 90.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 62c | 81.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 36c | 79.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 33c | 79.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 40c | 77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 69.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 53c | 69.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 62.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7073…0ca3backed Yes | 64c | 60.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 57c | 59.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…2217backed No | 37c | 59.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 59.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 60c | 56.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 59c | 53.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 57c | 51.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 40c | 50.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 46c | 50.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…06fcbacked Yes | 39c | 48.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 63c | 48.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 51c | 48.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 52c | 47.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…e0c3backed Yes | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 45.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 41c | 45.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 59c | 43.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 41.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…31d2backed Yes | 36c | 41.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…dc1fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 58c | 40.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…6be8backed No | 64c | 39.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…4e18backed No | 64c | 38.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8427…658ebacked Yes | 39c | 37.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b5…0d88backed Yes | 54c | 37.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…5587backed Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed No | 56c | 35.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b6…fb66backed Yes | 40c | 34.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 47c | 33.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…c769backed No | 63c | 32.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…3616backed No | 64c | 31.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cd…213dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…0388backed Yes | 39c | 28.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 61c | 27.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…c102backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 25.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 57c | 25.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 64c | 24.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 43c | 23.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.