Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e06901e131ed38068c148e87334fabd99e778ead6dbe90ed6df35e8e283df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,960$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,042$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.37 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 41c | 836.18$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Yes | 29c | 624.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…3f8bbacked No | 76c | 604.57$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 552.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…5587backed No | 70c | 530.39$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 422.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 390.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 65c | 377.91$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 13c | 370$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 338.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 70c | 320.23$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 10c | 294.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 67c | 282.22$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 38c | 263.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 242.05$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 206.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 205.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 24c | 199.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 179.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 40c | 178.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 66c | 160$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 159.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…dba0backed Yes | 11c | 147.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 38c | 140$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 123.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 32c | 122.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…e0c3backed Yes | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…9780backed Yes | 12c | 114.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 50c | 102.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 99.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 13c | 90.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 84.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 32c | 73.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 68.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 34c | 57.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 56.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…985fbacked Yes | 36c | 54.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…c7a6backed Yes | 39c | 54.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…2217backed No | 80c | 51.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 50.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…f750backed Yes | 21c | 50.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 47.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…0224backed No | 67c | 42.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 40.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cb…04c6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 38c | 39.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 69c | 38.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1f…eaa4backed No | 67c | 34.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…e1bbbacked No | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…e2b6backed Yes | 49c | 30.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 29.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…620bbacked No | 75c | 27.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 70c | 24.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed No | 74c | 24.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…c102backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 21.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 66c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 72c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e2bfbacked No | 66c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed No | 80c | 13.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.