Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7ae9255a4603c83be5f5a67e39044484436c39994e4c9f123a97bd717e78acc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15be…a62fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,018$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 891.04$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 489.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 458.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 23c | 434.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 11c | 323.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 27c | 266.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 254.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 243.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 66c | 240.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 175$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 167.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 32c | 155.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 12c | 141.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 132.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 130.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 127.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 127.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 74c | 125.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 112$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 111.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 108.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 101.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 78.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 70.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 56.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 25c | 55.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 27c | 54.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 67c | 53.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 67c | 40.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 39.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 28.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 80c | 24.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 21.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 77c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 75c | 15.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.