Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe7ef7a30c2bd848216a29186c97504dda0796112c9c5e6b8beb8ba162f8c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 874.16$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 473.13$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 400.07$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 28c | 313.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.98 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 43c | 266.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 232.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.38 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 201.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 174.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 8c | 167.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 149$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 67c | 148.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 63c | 145$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 137.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 60c | 115.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 110.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 101.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 96.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 95.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 85.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 32c | 84.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 78.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 78.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 76.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 73.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 17c | 69.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 68.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 63.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 62.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 61.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 36c | 54.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 74c | 53.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 74c | 50.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 50c | 50.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 48.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 47.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 42.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 32c | 42.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 42.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 41.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 65c | 40.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 37c | 37.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 36.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 32.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…f0d5backed Yes | 33c | 31.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 56c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 64c | 29.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 50c | 25.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 67c | 23.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 23.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 19.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x489c…1a43backed No | 69c | 17.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 63c | 16.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.