Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7e0102255de64b4c35a174ea79a4719c7862328340623cf98855b96f429096c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Utrechtof AFC Ajax, FC Utrecht
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc4…ab52backed FC Utrecht | 78c | 704.26$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3cb6backed AFC Ajax | 14c | 678.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AFC Ajax | 20c | 363.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed AFC Ajax | 25c | 172.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…1307backed AFC Ajax | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…5283backed AFC Ajax | 29c | 102.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked AFC Ajax | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed FC Utrecht | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed AFC Ajax | 24c | 47.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Utrecht | 70c | 39.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed FC Utrecht | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed FC Utrecht | 74c | 25.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 0.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Utrecht won
- Spread: FC Utrecht (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: FC Utrecht (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.