Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d97fd314e65a2cd5642082a90c415ed2cf839c8c1f7eeb2fd581ed02e9bf05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 35c | 5,222$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.73 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 63c | 3,424$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.08 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 3,236$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.63 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 38c | 2,071$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.36 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 64c | 1,820$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.66 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 71c | 1,362$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.43 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 1,287$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 7c | 735.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 63c | 657.38$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 68c | 652.94$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 587.49$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 18c | 560$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 37c | 550$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 37c | 303$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 7c | 235$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 62c | 230.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 12c | 205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 38c | 175$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over | 30c | 174.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 65c | 154.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 131.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…0ebbbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Over | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 36.9%48 W · 82 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 63c | 73.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 119 | 68.1%81 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…927cbacked Under | 72c | 37.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 65c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43f…5778backed Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 66c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 65c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 0.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)FC Utrecht won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Utrecht won
- Spread: FC Utrecht (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: FC Utrecht (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.