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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,895

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,514 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes5c4,119$226 inLost-$225.717224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes4c1,325$50 inLost-$50.251,86625.4%474 W · 1,392 L+134.7wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+53.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5337…b0c7backed Yes4c1,250$49 inLost-$48.97816.7%13 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+125.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes6c1,173$72 inLost-$71.8492640.2%372 W · 554 L+114.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+66%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes4c1,118$42 inLost-$42.2628540.4%115 W · 170 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c884.07$86 inLost-$862,29917.8%409 W · 1,890 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes8c832.35$65 inLost-$65.431,50024.7%371 W · 1,129 L-31.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes2c565.99$14 inLost-$14.0286230.7%265 W · 597 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost-$159712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c289.83$40 inLost-$39.5210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes7c283.98$20 inLost-$19.9392145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes4c271.56$11 inLost-$10.531974.6%9 W · 188 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+82.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes9c262.59$22 inLost-$22.322,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c238.87$27 inLost-$26.626,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d4…9705backed Yes20c203.41$40 inLost-$39.991758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes10c174.5$17 inLost-$16.983,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c44…f27fbacked Yes10c145.39$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes14c112$16 inLost-$15.685,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes18c100$18 inLost-$17.785548.7%416 W · 439 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes19c89$17 inLost-$16.9832345.8%148 W · 175 L+16.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes14c88.55$12 inLost-$12.3160032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes17c75$13 inLost-$12.5563733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92c4…db23backed Yes28c72.05$20 inLost-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes28c71.42$20 inLost-$205052%26 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe60…56f5backed Yes27c64$18 inLost-$17.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c40$32 inWon+$8.412,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.