Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa81674283e281efbb9999e6c14ad6fc7194c098e7b97aeb89d64b8c1332964d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 43c | 2,352$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.26 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 1,586$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 3c | 1,261$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 5c | 1,074$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 38c | 1,051$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.91 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 1,036$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.19 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 55c | 876.89$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.05 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 55c | 694.51$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.19 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed No | 3c | 600.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 10c | 573.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 43c | 406.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 61c | 379.53$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.65 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 11c | 375.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 16c | 364.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 345.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.37 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d8fdbacked No | 6c | 327.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 32c | 319.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.88 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 316.64$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 305.38$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 299.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 14c | 275.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…8c4dbacked Yes | 75c | 268.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 257.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 71c | 246.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 239.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 44c | 231.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 189.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 180.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 178.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 62c | 150.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 149.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 139.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 22c | 137.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 14c | 133.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 133.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 45c | 126.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 46c | 125.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 125.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 119.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 116.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 116.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 111$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 108.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 19c | 108.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 106.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 57c | 105.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 105.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a16…cb2abacked Yes | 63c | 104.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 52c | 102.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 102.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 102.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 41c | 100.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed No | 66c | 98.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 35c | 95.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 95.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 12c | 92.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 90.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 69c | 85.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 59c | 81.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 80.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 76.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 42c | 71.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…47a3backed No | 30c | 65.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 65.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 34c | 61.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 60.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff6…b95dbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e7…3521backed Yes | 42c | 59.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 60c | 54.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 20c | 53.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 61c | 50.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 50.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 291 | 67.7%197 W · 94 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 60c | 47.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 46.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…9badbacked Yes | 32c | 46.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 45.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 46c | 45.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 68c | 44.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6555…3aa3backed Yes | 77c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 39.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.