Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedaefae5aba04c81de783c94efc327ae51ee9d205c643d4ec71fc1ea6180ec2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,800$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 1,838$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.61 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 1,388$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 639.13$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.41 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 599.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 576.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 557.52$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.26 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 400$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 349.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 436 | 38.1%166 W · 270 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 58c | 345.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 333.18$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 61c | 325.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 50c | 296$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 69c | 291.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 288.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 49c | 245.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 239.47$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 64c | 226$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 862 | 30.7%265 W · 597 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…8c4dbacked Yes | 50c | 200.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 196.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 43c | 192.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 48c | 185.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 48c | 181.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 173$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 171.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 18c | 166.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 7c | 155.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 63c | 151.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 150.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 41c | 149.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 20c | 134.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 60c | 121.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 40c | 109.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 103.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 50c | 101.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 37c | 97.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 70c | 97.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 96.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 93.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 50c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 84.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 24c | 84.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 62c | 79.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 79.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 50c | 69.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 67.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 17c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 46.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 45.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 45.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 45c | 45.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 78c | 45.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 49c | 40.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 64c | 39.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed No | 48c | 37.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 42c | 37.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7aa…37b8backed Yes | 36c | 36.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 36c | 35.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 61c | 32.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 35c | 32.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 32c | 32.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 51c | 28.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 42c | 27.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 48c | 26.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 25.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 59c | 24.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 62c | 24.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1314…ada8backed No | 46c | 21.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.