Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe84c4fd72c3b59982c7599e8c24fe3f093d7f675c5dc2a54e826326494ec4478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Tiafoe, Kubler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kubler | 25c | 6,252$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.07 | 168 | 25%42 W · 126 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Tiafoe | 74c | 5,711$4,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.86 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kubler | 24c | 5,603$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.89 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kubler | 25c | 4,143$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.1 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Tiafoe | 75c | 3,720$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Kubler | 21c | 2,642$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.9 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kubler | 21c | 2,570$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.92 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Kubler | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kubler | 11c | 1,932$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kubler | 11c | 1,802$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.53 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…f360backed Tiafoe | 76c | 1,753$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tiafoe | 66c | 1,333$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.03 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tiafoe | 69c | 1,076$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.26 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Tiafoe | 74c | 716.14$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.36 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde69…e82ebacked Tiafoe | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Kubler | 8c | 672.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kubler | 18c | 563.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Tiafoe | 69c | 536$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.04 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Kubler | 17c | 526.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kubler | 16c | 521.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Tiafoe | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Tiafoe | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Kubler | 16c | 310.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Kubler | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kubler | 26c | 289.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…398fbacked Tiafoe | 74c | 271.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Kubler | 21c | 219.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Tiafoe | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Kubler | 24c | 201.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Tiafoe | 76c | 201.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Tiafoe | 72c | 172.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Tiafoe | 74c | 168.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…6b4cbacked Tiafoe | 74c | 162.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Tiafoe | 71c | 141.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Tiafoe | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Tiafoe | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tiafoe | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Kubler | 24c | 127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…5d26backed Kubler | 27c | 125.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Kubler | 24c | 124.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…61c4backed Tiafoe | 75c | 110.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Tiafoe | 63c | 106.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Kubler | 23c | 100.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Kubler | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Kubler | 28c | 70.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Tiafoe | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…87d2backed Tiafoe | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Tiafoe | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kubler | 30c | 67.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Tiafoe | 76c | 66.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Kubler | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…584dbacked Tiafoe | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Kubler | 21c | 58.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Kubler | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Kubler | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Tiafoe | 74c | 51.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kubler | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Kubler | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tiafoe | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…0237backed Kubler | 35c | 43.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…5ea2backed Kubler | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tiafoe | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…261fbacked Kubler | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 243 | 57.6%140 W · 103 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Tiafoe | 72c | 34.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Kubler | 34c | 31.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Tiafoe | 74c | 30.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed Tiafoe | 77c | 28.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Tiafoe | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfd…c364backed Tiafoe | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…6154backed Tiafoe | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…6309backed Tiafoe | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…5257backed Tiafoe | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…25afbacked Tiafoe | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Tiafoe | 73c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kublerthis page
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Kubler (+1.5)Tiafoe won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Kubler (+2.5)Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.