CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe858cb17fba01c6ad1d57e4d30867f0d8168ca9909161b858a7744d6e5be4aac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atreidesof Atreides, ENCE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x824f…69bdbacked ENCE | 55c | 3,932$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.09 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Atreides | 45c | 2,878$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.52 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked ENCE | 61c | 2,440$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.95 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ENCE | 54c | 2,129$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.69 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ENCE | 62c | 1,181$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.86 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Atreides | 37c | 1,079$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.68 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…e230backed Atreides | 45c | 966.67$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ENCE | 53c | 833.56$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.95 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed ENCE | 55c | 800$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…4df8backed ENCE | 53c | 793.91$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.77 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked Atreides | 47c | 793$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.54 | 279 | 40.5%113 W · 166 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Atreides | 46c | 715.48$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Atreides | 44c | 658.37$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.27 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Atreides | 49c | 642$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.85 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Atreides | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atreides | 43c | 589.53$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.2 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…aeb1backed Atreides | 45c | 585.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Atreides | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.99 | 287 | 38%109 W · 178 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…9407backed ENCE | 57c | 489.95$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.2 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Atreides | 38c | 392.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.86 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Atreides | 41c | 377$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.39 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ENCE | 14c | 368.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…00aabacked Atreides | 45c | 335$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 171 | 42.1%72 W · 99 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6302backed Atreides | 46c | 297.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Atreides | 35c | 295.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed Atreides | 55c | 274.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed Atreides | 39c | 260$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed ENCE | 58c | 242.77$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…75a1backed Atreides | 42c | 234.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed ENCE | 45c | 220.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed ENCE | 54c | 215.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ENCE | 40c | 208.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Atreides | 52c | 206.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed ENCE | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 358 | 61.7%221 W · 137 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Atreides | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…35e4backed Atreides | 41c | 194.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Atreides | 45c | 190.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…2ae7backed Atreides | 45c | 186$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Atreides | 53c | 177.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed ENCE | 23c | 153.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Atreides | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Atreides | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Atreides | 44c | 137.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…fcc2backed Atreides | 45c | 123.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…f399backed Atreides | 46c | 122$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…102abacked ENCE | 49c | 116.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7da…43d9backed ENCE | 51c | 114.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 271 | 56.1%152 W · 119 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf868…3b45backed Atreides | 40c | 107.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked ENCE | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed ENCE | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Atreides | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…01e6backed ENCE | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Atreides | 44c | 97.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed ENCE | 65c | 93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked ENCE | 53c | 89.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Atreides | 43c | 84.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…7161backed ENCE | 33c | 81.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Atreides | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed ENCE | 56c | 74.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Atreides | 55c | 74.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…e961backed Atreides | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed ENCE | 38c | 65.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 231 | 50.6%117 W · 114 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Atreides | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…3caebacked ENCE | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Atreides | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Atreides | 72c | 55.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 446 | 75.3%336 W · 110 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aae…0da3backed ENCE | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…9646backed ENCE | 56c | 46.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 220 | 59.1%130 W · 90 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…a2dfbacked ENCE | 35c | 46.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…f557backed ENCE | 40c | 45.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Atreides | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Atreides | 45c | 38.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Atreides | 68c | 37.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…44bbbacked ENCE | 55c | 33.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed ENCE | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Atreides | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 206 | 46.6%96 W · 110 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Atreides | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…0d81backed Atreides | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Atreides | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…3518backed ENCE | 56c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE (BO3) - XPortal Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE - Map 1 WinnerAtreides won
- Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE - Map 2 WinnerAtreides won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.